There is no shortage of projectable talent in the Royals system right now. The top five prospects are logjammed with first and second-round draft picks, most of which are young and exciting. One name will most likely graduate from the list this season with Nick Loftin breaking camp with the team and looking for big-league innings down the stretch.
With one spot opening up and a whole season of performances to move names up and down the list, here are some guys outside of the top 10 prospects that could jump big this season:
Carson Roccaforte
Hero Wyatt
Henry Williams
Carter Jensen
Tyson Guererro
Here’s the skinny of it all. Plenty of guys have played well so far and have seasons to back up their early performances. With prospect rankings, however, the top spots are going to be reserved for guys that scouts deem projectable. We’re looking at guys who can put up the numbers and still seem to have more progress ahead of them. More specifically, we seek out young players with above-average tools. When looking for the next Royals top prospect I have to look past guys in their mid-twenties with one great season to date. I can’t even specifically look for one great season. I need someone 25 or younger, with great scout grades, and some stretch of innings that stand out. These aren’t exhaustive of course, but they are a decent baseline.
Carson Roccaforte (21 years old) – Hit: 50 / Run: 60 / Power: 45 / Arm: 50 / Field: 55
Here we have a guy who everyone seemingly loved out of the draft. Drafted with a supplemental second-round pick, he brings solid contact skills paired with a great outfield glove. His 60-grade run tool was just another reason for scouts and writers to fall in love with him. Roccaforte only played four games of rookie ball before the organization realized he was more than ready for Low-A ball. He struggled a bit with Columbia but still managed a .733 OPS in 27 games.
Earning another promotion in the 2024 season, Roccaforte begins the season with Quad Cities in High-A and a chance to climb further. One can imagine the Royals would love for him and Gavin Cross to start booking innings together in the Naturals’ outfield at AA. There’s a plethora of reasons to see a big season from him but a few reasons to expect some regression as well.
Roccaforte can hit the ball, he can field the ball, and he can run the bases like a bat out of hell. His contact skills and feel for the zone are up there with Javier Vaz and Blake Mitchell (potentially) in the Royals system. Posting a .964 OPS in his final college season, he finished with eight homeruns and 26(!) doubles in 65. He came into the minors and immediately became the best defensive center fielder in the org. games. He’s a smart outfielder who jumps the ball very well and has a keen sense for route running. Maybe a bit of a reach with a second-round supplemental pick but certainly not a player long for the draft if the Royals would have passed on him there. Down the stretch, there are plenty of “projectables” to see him wreaking havoc at the A-ball level.
Carson Roccaforte doesn’t boast a massive frame. At 6’1’’ and 195 pounds he is built like a professional ballplayer but perhaps not one who can run into 25 homeruns in a season. This isn’t necessarily a weakness for him but something that scouts will remain tentative about in coming years. His strength at the plate comes from a gap-to-gap swing that produces solid double potential and a little pull-side pop. His short swing keeps him on the ball, refusing to be beaten at the plate very often. As stated, what makes him stand out amongst other young players are the tools he possesses so soon out of college.
This year is his chance to make the case. He’s only 21 but quickly made his way up to 17 currently on the organization’s top 30 list. With some of these doubts, an underperformance in 2024 could pigeonhole him out of the top 10 prospects until he is just about ready to make his MLB debut. I see a pretty bright future for Carson Roccaforte. He looks like Kyle Isbel when all things are said and done, but the Royals can put in the work and add some power early. He could certainly put pressure on Isbel and Drew Waters in as little as a year if 2024 ends up being his season.
Hiro Wyatt (19 years old) – FB: 55 / Slider: 60 / Changeup: 40 / Control 45
I will be wrong about this one and I am more than ok with that. The 2023 third-round pick was committed to USC before being drawn away by a very lofty singing bonus. The Royals valued his great fastball and slider enough to go above the slot for Wyatt and get him in their system. He didn’t pitch in 2023 and has no numbers for me to spew at you, but he screams surprise at me.
Much of his ability to climb the Top 30 list (currently 26) is whether or not that changeup grade can climb along with him. His fastball out of high school was already in the mid-to-high 90s (touching 97). His slider to match seems even better, but there is not much information to pair. He’s a mystery to street-level writers such as myself without some of the insight from the org. That being said, he has a heater that can get guys out at lower levels until he figures out his control and develops a third pitch.
The 2022-2023 Gatorade Baseball Player of The Year in Connecticut pitched 41.2 innings in his senior year and tallied 90 strikeouts and a .67 ERA. For what it’s worth to you he also hit .359 in the same season. He isn’t a hitter but a fun little tidbit for you that will inevitably be brought up by Rex Hudler when he makes his way to the major league team.
Henry Williams (22 years old) – FB: 55 / Slider: 55 / Changeup: 50 / Control: 50
Henry Williams was recovering from Tommy John surgery when acquired by the Royals for Scott Barlow in 2023. He was able to make 5 starts for the team down in Columbia, putting up a 3.38 ERA in 24 innings pitched. He struck out 23 total batters and only allowed a .209 opponent average and 3 home runs. After his transfer to the Royals system, he gave up significantly more air contact than before. It’s hard to expect that to continue as he recovers fully from surgery.
The grades don’t jump out at you when looking, but he brings a 6’5 frame and the possibility of further velocity as he continues to heal. His fastball currently hits upwards of 94 mph and his slider stays tight with plenty of spin. These two pitches look to improve at least a little once he begins to hit his stride this season. Pipeline currently thinks he has the upside of a 4 or 5 starter if he hits his ceiling. It also mentions, however, that he is analytically minded and impressed staff with his ability to adapt. With his baseline tools already sitting at or above average, there seems to be plenty of opportunity in 2024.
What truly stands out to me is how highly his arsenal is graded at only 22 years old. Scouts love his stuff and think he can be graded high enough to punch out good hitters. Given further development these grades could get even better. If these pitches continue to grow alongside his command there might not even be a need for a fourth pitch. Fastball, breaking, offspeed. He has one of each and all of them reside above average on the grading scale. A grade and an actual performance are different things. But since scouts value his stuff, even a little output in 2024 could do big things for his ranking.
The currently 29th-ranked prospect in the system will get a full season with the Royals’ pitching development. This, combined with his mature disposition, could do wonderful things for his development and thus his status within the position on the Top 30 list. He looks to move up regardless but a big jump is hiding in there somewhere.
Carter Jensen (20 years old) – Hit: 45 / Power: 50 / Run: 40 / Arm: 55 / Field: 50
This one feels a bit like a cheat. Carter Jensen is not a top-10 prospect for the Royals. He is a top-11 prospect for the Royals. What would make this one surprising is that another catcher, Blake Mitchell, currently resides at number one. Still, Jensen is a homegrown kid that scouts found early. He was drafted right off of the Royals Scout team for his high power potential and advanced swing mechanics.
He feels a bit like an international pick with high-ceiling tools but a lack of advanced baseball fundamentals that translate to quick development. Going into his third year there seems to be some hope that he figures out his plate approach. He’s shown a knack for drawing walks to pair with the power but has been limited by his ability to adjust his contact approach in pitcher counts. He’s never been a guy that will hit for average. Numbers in the low .200s have kept his OPS from blossoming above .800 where he certainly has the potential to live.
To be perfectly honest, I have never been as high on Jensen as others have been. This has been the case since I saw him play in high school as a scouting intern at Perfect Game Midwest. He does have elite natural power hidden in his frame. He has yet to show it consistently but with more contact, you can imagine it will rear its head eventually. He’s a make-or-break prospect but with his current ranking at 11 without consistent production, you can imagine he could climb easily. He is on this list for the opposite reason as guys like Roccaforte or Williams. They have baselines far above the average prospect so an above-average season will open some eyes. Jensen has a massive ceiling, so anything around average will be perceived as a huge step towards realizing his potential.
Tyson Guerrero (25 years old) – FB: 55 / CB: 50 / Slider: 60 / Changeup: 45 / Control: 50
Tyson Guerrero is the oldest guy on this list, but far from the least likely. Sitting at 30 in the top 30, it is highly unlikely he will make that jump into the top 5. That said, he is coming into 2024 with a nasty four-pitch mix and plenty of room to grow. He put up respectable numbers in 2023 with a 3.97 ERA, 121 strikeouts, and a 1.14 WHIP. After earning a promotion to AA he struggled a bit (but between you and me he’s seemed to figure out hitters at that level in 2024.) His .217 opponent average and .88 GO/AO show that he can miss bats and keep the ball on the ground.
Guerrero seems to lean towards all or nothing early in his career. He doesn’t give up a lot of contact but he gets overaggressive and leaves the ball in the zone. He can overcorrect that by completely missing which leads to walks. The bright side of both of these things is that he’s made strides at correcting these issues. His WHIP has consistently gone down throughout his journey through the minors. His strikeout numbers tend to outweigh the home runs. To pair, the ball was on the ground enough in 2023 that batters hit into 40 double-play opportunities.
Guerrero seems like a bit of a wild card. I haven’t seen a lot of discourse on him but there seems to be a lot of potential to break out at any moment. If the control improves in any capacity he already has 3 great pitches to work around the zone. He can mix in a fourth pitch for parity and increase an already inflated strikeout number when need be. There’s a lot to like about Tyson Guerrero and seemingly few people are willing to look. Perhaps it’s strike-out leaders like Mason Barnett and Noah Cameron sharing the rotation with him. Perhaps some of the advanced metrics don’t favor him. With a low-to-mid 90s fastball, the changeup developing further is key to becoming a stud.
He’s the lowest on the top prospects list to be covered here. But… that means he has the opportunity for the biggest jump. Keep your eyes open for a breakout year for a guy with only 147 previous innings pitched and 100-plus innings coming this year.
