There’s bouncing back after a bad season, and then there’s what the Royals are doing right now. Plenty of teams have missed the playoffs and qualified for the following season, but none have come back from as bad of a season as the 2023 Royals had. If the season ended today, the Royals would become just the second team in the expansion era dating back to 1961 to lose over 100 games and then make the postseason the following season.
The History of 100 Loss Teams
Dating back to the expansion era, 91 teams have finished a season losing north of 100 games. The following season typically isn’t very kind to those teams, averaging a win total of just 69 games. Of the 91 teams, only 12 (13.8%) have produced a winning record the following season. Of those 12 teams, only one, the 2017 Twins, managed to reach the postseason. The largest win increase a team has seen after a 100-loss season was a 34-game difference by the 1962 Phillies.
While there’s still plenty of season remaining, the Royals are on pace to crush every team mentioned above. Kansas City is currently on pace to win 97 games in what would be a record 41-game improvement from last season. The most games any team has ever won following a 100-loss season is 87 by the 1967 Cubs and 1989 Orioles.
What the Royals are currently doing is historical. They didn’t just lose 100 games, they lost 106. Nobody has ever lost that many games and made the postseason the next season. The season the Royals are having has never happened before.
Improved Pitching
The pitching hasn’t just improved in Kansas City, it’s flipped upside down. The 2023 Royals were bottom five in batting average allowed, earned runs, and strikeouts. So far in 2024 the team pitching staff ranks top 10 in home runs allowed, earned runs, saves, shutouts, and wins. Pitching Coach Brian Sweeney has done an incredible job with the staff, and off-season pickups Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have served as key veteran pieces that filled voids in the starting rotation.
The foundation of any serious contender in baseball is strong pitching, whether it be a solid rotation or a dominant bullpen like the Royals had the last time they made the postseason. Part of what plagued the Royals in years past was long losing streaks that involved multiple sweeps, but nearly 50 games into the 2024 campaign the Royals are still yet to get swept. Having five quality starters limits the long skids from happening.
The Royals offense isn’t spectacular, many players are struggling, but the pitching is keeping them in games in years past would have been losses.
Will This Last?
The question arises, can the Royals continue winning at this rate into the dog days of the summer? While I don’t believe the team will ultimately win 97 games like they’re pacing currently, I do believe they will become the 13th team to ever go from 100 losses to a winning record.
The team is currently getting little to no value from the outfield. The bullpen is shaky. Velazquez at DH is struggling. All of these issues and yet the team finds themselves 10 games above .500. Barring the pitching falling off a cliff, why can’t the Royals continue this? It’d be one thing if this were a two-week sample size, but 1.5 months is a good look at what you are as a team, and these Royals are playoff material.
